Adamas forecasts rare earth magnet annual growth at 7.5%
May 22, 2023
Critical minerals and metals research company Adamas Intelligence, based in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, has published its ‘Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040’ report, providing a detailed overview of the global NdFeB alloy, powder, magnet and magnet rare earth oxide markets, including a breakdown of historical production, consumption and prices from 2015 through 2022. The report further details the anticipated near-term evolution of the rare earth magnet value chain and forecasts global supply, demand and prices from 2023 through 2040 under three distinct scenarios.
Data sourced by Adamas indicated that world-wide consumption of NdFeB magnets increased some 1.9% year-over-year in 2022, a figure it said was suppressed by global economic headwinds and regional pandemic-related challenges. From 2023 through 2040, however, the company forecasts that global demand for NdFeB magnets will increase at a CAGR of 7.5%.
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This growth should be bolstered by double-digit growth from electric vehicle and wind power sectors, necessarily translating to a growth in demand for the critical rare earth elements (i.e., didymium, dysprosium and terbium) that these magnets contain.
In ‘Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040,’ Adamas has highlighted the following findings as of particular interest:
- The market for magnet rare earth oxides may increase five-fold by 2040; with total magnet rare earth oxide consumption forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 5.2% (versus a higher 7.0% for demand) and prices projected to increase at CAGRs of 3.3% to 5.2% over the same period, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that the value of global magnet rare earth oxide consumption will increase five-fold by 2040, from an estimated US $10.8 billion this year to $56.7 billion by 2040
- Annual NdFeB undersupply of 246,000 tonnes is expected by 2040; constrained by increasingly tight availability of magnet rare earth feedstocks, Adamas forecasts that global undersupply of NdFeB alloy and powder will amount to 60,000 tonnes annually by 2030 and 246,000 tonnes annually by 2040 – an amount almost equal to last year’s total global NdFeB alloy and powder production
- Annual NdPr oxide undersupply of 90,000 tonnes expected by 2040; similarly constrained by a lack of new primary and secondary supply sources from 2023 onward, Adamas forecasts that global undersupply of didymium oxide (or oxide equivalent) will rise to 19,000 tonnes-per-annum by 2030 and 90,000 tonnes-per-annum by 2040 – an amount roughly equal to last year’s total global primary plus secondary production
- Annual Dy and Tb oxide undersupply of 1,800 tonnes and 450 tonnes expected by 2040; another area constrained by a lack of supply sources from 2023 onward, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that global undersupply of dysprosium and terbium oxides (or oxide equivalents) will rise to 1,800 tonnes and 450 tonnes annually by 2040 – amounts roughly equal to last year’s total global production of each oxide
More information on the report, including a table of contents, is available here.